Some quarters are being too haughty in dismissing as a light ticket the administration party's team-up of Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro and Interior and Local Government Secretary Ronnie Puno, given the current, recognition of the Noynoy Aquino-Mar Roxas tandem.
Those well informed about Philippine electoral politics know that under the present political landscape and dynamics, the Gibo-Ronnie ticket is basically the team to beat.
Opposition Senator Jinggoy Estrada himself claimed that Ronnie Puno alone is a formidable candidate as VP.
Demographics is also leaned in favor of the administration ticket.
In her column in Malaya Business discernment, Ms.
Ellen Tordesillas wrote that'political consultant Malou Tiquia, in a presentation on'Developments in the 2010 election campaign' in a recent forum subsidized by the Ateneo college of Government, asserted that of the 45,029,443 registered voters as of March 2009, 9,000,000 belong to age 18-35 years old.
Election observers expect 22% of voters would come from the youth sector.
'If these young people would identify with somebody in their age range, they would have three to choose from,' Tiquia said, namely : Teodoro, Chiz Escudero of the National folk's Coalition, who will be turning 40 ( the minimum age obligation to be president ) on October 10 ; and the Liberal Party's Noynoy Aquino.
More importantly, Tiquia observed that'the past 3 countrywide elections showed a mean of 74.
25 electorate turnout.
That would mean about thirty three million out of the nearly 46 million registered voters...
To win in a contest of 4 or 5 presidential candidates, the winner should get at least 30% of the votes or 10 million votes.
' Because surveys show that even with all the mud thrown at President Arroyo, she still has a solid 25% support ( or approval rating ) among Filipinos, that would translate into about 8.
25 million electorate going to the anointed bets of President Arroyo.
the remainder of those dissatisfied with the President, which number around 45% would vote for the other opposition bets-meaning the likes of Noynoy, Erap and Chiz would have to fight over this 45%.
The 30 percent who are uncertain could go either way.
This scenario really gives the Gibo-Ronnie team an early lead because even without doing anything they are already guaranteed of 8.
25 million of the 10 million votes or so needed to win in 2010, simply by being identified with President Arroyo.
This prognosis is bolstered by Tiquia's observation that in 1992, Fidel Ramos won with only 5,342,321 votes ( 16.
62% of total registered electorate ) over Miriam Santiago who got 4,468,133.
She likewise spotted that Arroyo was proclaimed after being credited with 12,905,808 votes ( 29.
64 % ) over Fernando Poe Jr.
's 11,782, 232 votes.
Remember that FVR run in an overcrowded field that incorporated Santiago, Danding Cojuangco, Ramon Mitra, Imelda Marcos, Jovito Salonga and Salvador Laurel, every one of them separately running, respectively, under the People's Reform Party, the Nationalist folk's Coalition, Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino, Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, Liberal Party-PDP Laban, and the Nacionalista Party.
In 2004, Arroyo's rivals besides FPJ were Ping Lacson of the LDP-Aquino Wing, Raul Roco of the Alyansang Pag-asa/Aksyon Demokratiko, and Eduardo Villanueva of the Bangon Pilipinas.
thus in a field of four or five major presidential aspirants, it doesn't take an overpowering majority to win the elections.
and the Gibo-Ronnie tandem is assured of some 8,000,000 votes at the start of the race by just being recommended by President Arroyo.
This, together with the administration party's well-oiled political machinery reaching down to the grassroots level and the candidates' qualifications, is the clear edge of the Gilbert Teodoro [http://www.
gibo.
ph/] - Ronnie Puno tandem.
Those well informed about Philippine electoral politics know that under the present political landscape and dynamics, the Gibo-Ronnie ticket is basically the team to beat.
Opposition Senator Jinggoy Estrada himself claimed that Ronnie Puno alone is a formidable candidate as VP.
Demographics is also leaned in favor of the administration ticket.
In her column in Malaya Business discernment, Ms.
Ellen Tordesillas wrote that'political consultant Malou Tiquia, in a presentation on'Developments in the 2010 election campaign' in a recent forum subsidized by the Ateneo college of Government, asserted that of the 45,029,443 registered voters as of March 2009, 9,000,000 belong to age 18-35 years old.
Election observers expect 22% of voters would come from the youth sector.
'If these young people would identify with somebody in their age range, they would have three to choose from,' Tiquia said, namely : Teodoro, Chiz Escudero of the National folk's Coalition, who will be turning 40 ( the minimum age obligation to be president ) on October 10 ; and the Liberal Party's Noynoy Aquino.
More importantly, Tiquia observed that'the past 3 countrywide elections showed a mean of 74.
25 electorate turnout.
That would mean about thirty three million out of the nearly 46 million registered voters...
To win in a contest of 4 or 5 presidential candidates, the winner should get at least 30% of the votes or 10 million votes.
' Because surveys show that even with all the mud thrown at President Arroyo, she still has a solid 25% support ( or approval rating ) among Filipinos, that would translate into about 8.
25 million electorate going to the anointed bets of President Arroyo.
the remainder of those dissatisfied with the President, which number around 45% would vote for the other opposition bets-meaning the likes of Noynoy, Erap and Chiz would have to fight over this 45%.
The 30 percent who are uncertain could go either way.
This scenario really gives the Gibo-Ronnie team an early lead because even without doing anything they are already guaranteed of 8.
25 million of the 10 million votes or so needed to win in 2010, simply by being identified with President Arroyo.
This prognosis is bolstered by Tiquia's observation that in 1992, Fidel Ramos won with only 5,342,321 votes ( 16.
62% of total registered electorate ) over Miriam Santiago who got 4,468,133.
She likewise spotted that Arroyo was proclaimed after being credited with 12,905,808 votes ( 29.
64 % ) over Fernando Poe Jr.
's 11,782, 232 votes.
Remember that FVR run in an overcrowded field that incorporated Santiago, Danding Cojuangco, Ramon Mitra, Imelda Marcos, Jovito Salonga and Salvador Laurel, every one of them separately running, respectively, under the People's Reform Party, the Nationalist folk's Coalition, Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino, Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, Liberal Party-PDP Laban, and the Nacionalista Party.
In 2004, Arroyo's rivals besides FPJ were Ping Lacson of the LDP-Aquino Wing, Raul Roco of the Alyansang Pag-asa/Aksyon Demokratiko, and Eduardo Villanueva of the Bangon Pilipinas.
thus in a field of four or five major presidential aspirants, it doesn't take an overpowering majority to win the elections.
and the Gibo-Ronnie tandem is assured of some 8,000,000 votes at the start of the race by just being recommended by President Arroyo.
This, together with the administration party's well-oiled political machinery reaching down to the grassroots level and the candidates' qualifications, is the clear edge of the Gilbert Teodoro [http://www.
gibo.
ph/] - Ronnie Puno tandem.