I've heard it more than once, an angry horse player turns to a companion and says, "They take turns winning these races, you can't tell who's going to win.
You have to know whose turn it is.
" It certainly seems that way when you're handicapping claiming races and the horses have raced against each other and other horses at the same level.
It really is true that the horse that wins today will be beaten next week by a horse that it just bested.
What is going on? How do you know which horse will win today? First of all, it is highly unlikely that the trainers take turns winning.
It is very hard to tell which horse will win, but it is possible, with education and practice, to know which horse is a good bet.
A runner that is a good bet is one that will return a profit if you always insist on fair value odds.
In other words, if you wager on horse A at 5-1 whenever it is in this type of race with this statistical makeup, it will win often enough to return all the money you risk as well as a profit.
How do you estimate a horse's chances of winning and know if it's a good bet? The first thing you must understand is that nothing in life remains the same, except change.
While the race you're handicapping today may appear exactly like the one you handicapped last week with the same runners in it, there are differences.
Sometimes you may see them and sometimes they may be hidden from view.
The first thing you have to realize is, while horses do have form cycles, human intervention is the key to how they perform from week to week.
Good trainers are constantly adjusting and trying to improve a horse, while the mediocre conditioners merely keep entering them in races and running them over and over again and winning once in a while.
Therefore, your first move should be to identify which trainers are the sort who improve a horse and which ones are merely going through the motions.
Once you have a list of trainers who will improve a horse, look for them when they get a new horse in their barns and watch to see what they do.
For instance, did they add or take away blinkers? Did he or she add a tongue tie? Is there a difference in workout patterns or did the horse have a layoff to rest and refresh? Change is the whole key to success for horse trainers and it can be for handicappers as well.
Horse racing handicapping is the process of comparing the runners and determining which one will be the best today and which one will be second best, etc.
Then, based on that knowledge, the wise bettor looks for the best odds based on the ability of each one.
If there is no change in training or equipment, you can expect the low priced older claimers to perform about like they did in their last races, however, if there is a change or they move to the barn of a good conditioner, look for a change.
That's the key to an improved horse that may be valued by the crowd based on his or her past performance.
You have to know whose turn it is.
" It certainly seems that way when you're handicapping claiming races and the horses have raced against each other and other horses at the same level.
It really is true that the horse that wins today will be beaten next week by a horse that it just bested.
What is going on? How do you know which horse will win today? First of all, it is highly unlikely that the trainers take turns winning.
It is very hard to tell which horse will win, but it is possible, with education and practice, to know which horse is a good bet.
A runner that is a good bet is one that will return a profit if you always insist on fair value odds.
In other words, if you wager on horse A at 5-1 whenever it is in this type of race with this statistical makeup, it will win often enough to return all the money you risk as well as a profit.
How do you estimate a horse's chances of winning and know if it's a good bet? The first thing you must understand is that nothing in life remains the same, except change.
While the race you're handicapping today may appear exactly like the one you handicapped last week with the same runners in it, there are differences.
Sometimes you may see them and sometimes they may be hidden from view.
The first thing you have to realize is, while horses do have form cycles, human intervention is the key to how they perform from week to week.
Good trainers are constantly adjusting and trying to improve a horse, while the mediocre conditioners merely keep entering them in races and running them over and over again and winning once in a while.
Therefore, your first move should be to identify which trainers are the sort who improve a horse and which ones are merely going through the motions.
Once you have a list of trainers who will improve a horse, look for them when they get a new horse in their barns and watch to see what they do.
For instance, did they add or take away blinkers? Did he or she add a tongue tie? Is there a difference in workout patterns or did the horse have a layoff to rest and refresh? Change is the whole key to success for horse trainers and it can be for handicappers as well.
Horse racing handicapping is the process of comparing the runners and determining which one will be the best today and which one will be second best, etc.
Then, based on that knowledge, the wise bettor looks for the best odds based on the ability of each one.
If there is no change in training or equipment, you can expect the low priced older claimers to perform about like they did in their last races, however, if there is a change or they move to the barn of a good conditioner, look for a change.
That's the key to an improved horse that may be valued by the crowd based on his or her past performance.