Well as we all clearly know by now S&P came in and finally turned the lights on Friday night marking the end of the European party that the politicians have been revelling at for the last 9 months.
Reaction was muted as the official confirmation came after market close, however rumours were rife through the course of Friday afternoon, and damage (if any was to be truly done considering most of these announcements were already priced in) was already well in play before the market closed with majors all slipping against the USD before Europe went home for the day.
I won't be going into the potential outcomes/repercussions of Friday's announcements, but will however say it is interesting to watch general price action in light of these events. All in all the price action has been somewhat counterintuitive to what most would normally expect in light of these outcomes and thus gives a small clue as to market positioning and the overall will of the market to still somehow turn a blind eye to the various global problems we're facing. What is they say hope springs eternal?
Moving on, it's worth noting that the US is on holiday today and thus action should be fairly muted, coupled with the fact that the data calendar is light today I would be looking for consolidation and reflection rather than anything market shaking. Data overnight saw, better prints in both Japan and Australia, but again these numbers did little to really do anything for either of these currencies.
In terms of the majors, looking at the EURUSD first, the overall range of 1.2530/50 by 1.2850 is still in play for the time being and perhaps only an official version of what the final Greek haircut will be, might for now be the catalyst for a break out. My money sits on an upside breakout at this stage rather than lower.
The AUDUSD equally remains in its broader range and still looks like it wants to have one more look higher to test that 1.0480 resistance area. Support on the day lies in around the 1.0280 level, stops below and better support into 1.0250.
The Cable is again broadly tracking the EUR however is still showing some resilience and perhaps a short-term bottoming structure/pattern is forming around the 1.5250/80 area looking for a constructive move back into 1.5450 over the coming days. http://alturl.com/i424j
EURCHF is worth keeping an eye, more for curiousity rather than anything else as the market edges ever closer to the 1.2000 SNB line in the sand now only being about 80 points shy of it...
And finally my eye lies on the USDCAD which should allow for dip buying again with your ultimate line in the sand being around the 1.0120 area, stops going in below 1.0050/30 and looking for a longer term move into 1.0350/0400. http://alturl.com/qpa9e
Short and sweet today folks, the market is finding its feet and by the end of this week we should be firmly back in the swing of things.
http://alturl.com/6r7mu
Reaction was muted as the official confirmation came after market close, however rumours were rife through the course of Friday afternoon, and damage (if any was to be truly done considering most of these announcements were already priced in) was already well in play before the market closed with majors all slipping against the USD before Europe went home for the day.
I won't be going into the potential outcomes/repercussions of Friday's announcements, but will however say it is interesting to watch general price action in light of these events. All in all the price action has been somewhat counterintuitive to what most would normally expect in light of these outcomes and thus gives a small clue as to market positioning and the overall will of the market to still somehow turn a blind eye to the various global problems we're facing. What is they say hope springs eternal?
Moving on, it's worth noting that the US is on holiday today and thus action should be fairly muted, coupled with the fact that the data calendar is light today I would be looking for consolidation and reflection rather than anything market shaking. Data overnight saw, better prints in both Japan and Australia, but again these numbers did little to really do anything for either of these currencies.
In terms of the majors, looking at the EURUSD first, the overall range of 1.2530/50 by 1.2850 is still in play for the time being and perhaps only an official version of what the final Greek haircut will be, might for now be the catalyst for a break out. My money sits on an upside breakout at this stage rather than lower.
The AUDUSD equally remains in its broader range and still looks like it wants to have one more look higher to test that 1.0480 resistance area. Support on the day lies in around the 1.0280 level, stops below and better support into 1.0250.
The Cable is again broadly tracking the EUR however is still showing some resilience and perhaps a short-term bottoming structure/pattern is forming around the 1.5250/80 area looking for a constructive move back into 1.5450 over the coming days. http://alturl.com/i424j
EURCHF is worth keeping an eye, more for curiousity rather than anything else as the market edges ever closer to the 1.2000 SNB line in the sand now only being about 80 points shy of it...
And finally my eye lies on the USDCAD which should allow for dip buying again with your ultimate line in the sand being around the 1.0120 area, stops going in below 1.0050/30 and looking for a longer term move into 1.0350/0400. http://alturl.com/qpa9e
Short and sweet today folks, the market is finding its feet and by the end of this week we should be firmly back in the swing of things.
http://alturl.com/6r7mu