With the rising popularity of online sports wagering, more and more casual sports fans are seeking to become gambling experts. Although it takes a while to develop sharp betting instincts, the basics are relatively straightforward. However, the basics should not be taken for granted. The most fundamental concept an aspiring sports bettor must understand is how sports betting lines work.
The betting line for any given sporting event is determined by an experienced bookmaker based on a variety of factors that include the participating teams' records, situational statistics, home-away splits, key injuries, the weather, and a whole host of other things. Most importantly, it's actually the public's perception of how the game or match is likely to turn out that helps a sportsbook set the line. It's in the interest of the sportsbook to set a line that will attract close to equal amounts of money coming in on both sides of the proposition, even if experts believe a given line doesn't reflect the actual probability that underpins each team's chances of success in a game.
Once an initial betting line is set, the bookmaker will shift the line frequently in either direction leading up to the match in the interest of continuing to attract an equal amount of money coming in on both sides. This will guarantee that the sportsbook doesn't lose -- or win -- huge amounts of money regardless of the outcome of any given sporting event, and it means that sports betting lines are determined by market forces.
Most people intuitively understand that betting lines are probability statements. Even an amateur can estimate the probability of certain outcomes in an NFL football game featuring the New England Patriots at home versus the New York Jets. One might say, for example, that the Patriots are 2-to-1 favorites -- or twice as likely to win -- over the Jets. In other words, in that specific game, the Patriots are given a 67% chance of winning while the Jets are only given a 33% chance.
With the Patriots being twice as likely to win as the Jets, betting on the Patriots to simply win will understandably involve risking a larger sum of money to win a much smaller amount, while betting on the Jets will result in a much larger payout since a Jets win is perceived to be unlikely.
The job of the bookmaker is to determine such probabilities for all sporting events. They don't usually, however, express these probabilities as percentages, fractions, or ratios. Instead, they set betting lines that are a reflection of probability that tell bettors how much they stand to win depending on which proposition they are taking.
In the U.S., usually a moneyline is set. A moneyline is either a positive or negative number displayed next to each team in any given sporting event. If the number is negative, that team is the favorite because the number listed after the minus sign is the amount a bettor would have to risk for every $100 he or she would hope to win in return. If the moneyline is positive, that team is the underdog because the number listed after the plus sign is the amount a bettor would win for every $100 he or she decided to risk.
Sticking to the above example where the Patriots are 2-to-1 favorites, the betting lines expressed as moneylines would be as follows:
New England -200
New York +200
This means that if I wanted to bet on the heavily favored Patriots simply to win the game, a $100 wager would result in a $150 payout -- $50 in winnings added on to the $100 risked -- if the Patriots win. Meanwhile, if one gambled on New York, risking $100 would result in a $300 payout -- $200 in winnings added onto the $100 risked -- if the Jets pulled off the upset. In either scenario, the bettor would lose the amount he or she wagered if his or her proposition lost.
Of course, moneyline bets are the simplest types of sports betting propositions because one simply bets on which team wins or loses. There are more sophisticated ways to gamble on sports with placing bets based on point spreads being the most common.
The betting line for any given sporting event is determined by an experienced bookmaker based on a variety of factors that include the participating teams' records, situational statistics, home-away splits, key injuries, the weather, and a whole host of other things. Most importantly, it's actually the public's perception of how the game or match is likely to turn out that helps a sportsbook set the line. It's in the interest of the sportsbook to set a line that will attract close to equal amounts of money coming in on both sides of the proposition, even if experts believe a given line doesn't reflect the actual probability that underpins each team's chances of success in a game.
Once an initial betting line is set, the bookmaker will shift the line frequently in either direction leading up to the match in the interest of continuing to attract an equal amount of money coming in on both sides. This will guarantee that the sportsbook doesn't lose -- or win -- huge amounts of money regardless of the outcome of any given sporting event, and it means that sports betting lines are determined by market forces.
Most people intuitively understand that betting lines are probability statements. Even an amateur can estimate the probability of certain outcomes in an NFL football game featuring the New England Patriots at home versus the New York Jets. One might say, for example, that the Patriots are 2-to-1 favorites -- or twice as likely to win -- over the Jets. In other words, in that specific game, the Patriots are given a 67% chance of winning while the Jets are only given a 33% chance.
With the Patriots being twice as likely to win as the Jets, betting on the Patriots to simply win will understandably involve risking a larger sum of money to win a much smaller amount, while betting on the Jets will result in a much larger payout since a Jets win is perceived to be unlikely.
The job of the bookmaker is to determine such probabilities for all sporting events. They don't usually, however, express these probabilities as percentages, fractions, or ratios. Instead, they set betting lines that are a reflection of probability that tell bettors how much they stand to win depending on which proposition they are taking.
In the U.S., usually a moneyline is set. A moneyline is either a positive or negative number displayed next to each team in any given sporting event. If the number is negative, that team is the favorite because the number listed after the minus sign is the amount a bettor would have to risk for every $100 he or she would hope to win in return. If the moneyline is positive, that team is the underdog because the number listed after the plus sign is the amount a bettor would win for every $100 he or she decided to risk.
Sticking to the above example where the Patriots are 2-to-1 favorites, the betting lines expressed as moneylines would be as follows:
New England -200
New York +200
This means that if I wanted to bet on the heavily favored Patriots simply to win the game, a $100 wager would result in a $150 payout -- $50 in winnings added on to the $100 risked -- if the Patriots win. Meanwhile, if one gambled on New York, risking $100 would result in a $300 payout -- $200 in winnings added onto the $100 risked -- if the Jets pulled off the upset. In either scenario, the bettor would lose the amount he or she wagered if his or her proposition lost.
Of course, moneyline bets are the simplest types of sports betting propositions because one simply bets on which team wins or loses. There are more sophisticated ways to gamble on sports with placing bets based on point spreads being the most common.