December 28, 2014

Climate buffs who pride themselves on knowing 2005 and 2010 are the hottest years (tied) on record may soon only need to commit a single year to memory: 2014. 

According to the NOAA National Climatic Data Center's State of the Climate global summary report for November 2014, the first 11 months of 2014 were the warmest January to November period EVER. If the global temperature for this December (which will be reported in early January 2015) is at least 1.37 °F (0.76 °C) above the 20th century average of 54 °F (12.2 °C), 2014 will oust the other years and claim the title of hottest year since global record-keeping began in 1880.

UPDATE: As of January 16, 2015, 2014 IS officially the warmest year in the 135-year global period of record. December 2014's average combined temperature was 1.39 °F (0.77 °C) above normal, which bumped the year's combined land and sea surface temperature to 1.24 °F (0.69 °C) above the 20th century average.   

Extreme Warmth Felt Year Round, 'Round the World

Didn't realize 2014 was such a consistently warm year for every corner of the globe? Here's a taste of the kinds of warm temperatures our global community endured not just over local summer, but all year long.

• China had its 2nd warmest January since its national records began in 1961.
• Alaska experienced its 3rd warmest January and 6th warmest May since statewide records began in 1918.
• Much-warmer-than-average temperatures were felt across Africa from April-June.
• Parts of northern Asia experienced above-average April temperatures, with some locations experiencing their warmest April on record.
• South Korea's spring temperatures were its 2nd warmest on record. May 2014 was its warmest May since national weather records began in 1973.

• In June, 31 countries/territories across every continent (with the exception of Antarctica) reported at least one station with a record warm July temperature. In July, that number increased to 32 countries/territories.
• Australia saw its 3rd warmest May; 5th warmest September; 2nd warmest October; and its warmest November since the country's records began in 1910.
• New Zealand observed its warmest June since its national records began in 1909.
• Much of Europe experienced warmer-than-average temperatures in February - June, and again in September - November. Many countries reported these months among their top 10 warmest within their country's period of record.
• In the UK, every month except August has seen above-average temperatures.
• Global sea surface temperatures were above the 20th century average for all months this year (December withstanding). In June, the global sea surface temperature was 1.15 °F (0.64 °C) above the 20th century average. This surpasses the all-time record for any month during any year.

Remarkable Warmth for an ENSO Neutral Year

One weather event that has surprisingly not contributed to this warmth is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Nino conditions often boost global warmth, but this year's ENSO-neutral conditions mean if 2014 does become the new record for highest global average temperatures, it will have accomplished this without the warming contribution of an El Nino, which according to the WMO is a remarkable feat.

Proof of Global Warming?

Anytime the words "warmest on record" are mentioned, a global warming debate is never far behind. So, what, if anything, would 2014 becoming the world's hottest year prove about global warming?

A paper issued by the WMO states that "one warm year does not necessarily say anything about long-term climate change"; what matters are the trends and the forces driving temperatures. However, given that 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have occurred since the turn of the century, I'd say that's a pretty strong trend (and dare I say, argument for global warming?).

Here's another revelation for you: according to some WMO scientists, the record heat coupled with other 2014 weather extremes all but confirm that the hotly-debated "pause" in global warming (the absence of major increases in temperatures since 1998) is nonexistent.

 

Sources:

NOAA NCDC (2014 December 12). The State of the Climate Global Summary Information - November 2014. Accessed December 28, 2014.

BBC News, David Shukman (2014 December 4). World on Course for Warmest Year. Accessed December 28, 2014.