Commercial Construction Industry Bounces Back
MBA's Chief Economist Peter Jones said: €Master Builders Australia's National Survey of Building and Construction shows commercial building has ticked into positive territory for the first time in five years since the GFC.€
Driving the upturn is the strengthening and evolution of the residential building sector; confidence in the prospects for commercial construction is rising, which in turn has driven industry-wide growth.
And according to Jones, the immediate outlook for the sector is also rosy: €For the second consecutive quarter the Survey shows improvement in the current business conditions of commercial builders while the index measuring expectations of future activity also rose sharply.€
Jones' comments will be music to the ears of every commercial construction company in Australia, following a sustained period of uncertainty since the GFC.
The news comes as the MBA also commented that claims of an unsustainable housing boom are exaggerated - apparently refuting comments from, among others, ANZ chairman David Gonski.
Jones said: €The fall of 0.7 per cent seasonally adjusted in the total number of owner occupied housing finance commitments for September shows such fears to be misguided.
€Builders welcome the slight cooling as excessive speculative activity can lead to undue price pressures and difficulties sourcing materials and labour inputs.€
And so the debate rages on as to whether there is a housing bubble (particularly in Sydney and Melbourne) - and if so, whether they are close to bursting.Smart Company's Michael Yardney says there's no bubble. Treasurer Joe Hockey rejected suggestions of a housing bubble, dismissing it as €lazy analysis". But IG Markets global chief executive Tim Howkins wholeheartedly disagrees. So does Goldman Sachs - and they know a thing or two about market crashes.
Low interest rates, property investment from abroad, supply levels, and favourable market conditions have been cited as evidence both for and against a housing bubble. So it seems neither side can even agree on what exactly constitutes a property market bubble, much less whether there is one.
And the MBA admits that while investor commitments do appear to be trending upwards, there are concerns around the continued absence of priced-out first homebuyers from the market. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures from August showed that around 6,000 first home buyers obtained a mortgage over the month - outside of the seasonally low months of January and February, that's the lowest month-on-month figure since June 2000.
There's also a marked difference in representation between different markets; in Western Australia, first home buyers account for 17.9% of the market, while in New South Wales, that figure is a shade over 2%.
Presumably, if first home buyers can be tempted back to the market, then the outlook for the construction industry could be even brighter. It's a challenge that won't be easy to solve however - the government's scrapping of the First Home Saver's Account in the last budget pointed to yet another failed scheme to tackle the problem.